I’m exploring building a sports prediction market on ethereum, could UMA act as an Oracle to settle results? Can anyone point me to material that would show how this would be achieved?
The goal would be to start small, with markets on English Premier league football matches where the result can be a home win, draw or away win. Then open it up so anyone can create a market.
I think this would make sense as a futures synthetic that references its own price, so at any given time it would reflect the market’s expectation of the number of wins a team will have over the course of a season.
I’m not sure how many matches there are in an English Premier league season, but let’s say there are 100 matches of some league of some sport. You could launch a TEAM_LEAGUE_2021 expiring contract that will have an expiration price equal to the number of wins that team has over the course of the season (min of 0, max of 100).
As the season progresses, the market’s expectation of the team’s performance will be priced in. At the end of the season, the token will expire to a price equal to the number of wins (so 75 wins would mean an expiry price of 75 Dai, or something).
Like uGas, you could take the time-weighted average price of TEAM_LEAGUE_2021 as the price feed before expiry, to make sure positions are properly collateralized.
Pretty easy to re-use this format across teams, leagues, and sports.